References [Text]

Here you can find the link to the articles and resources that have been used and quoted in the module.


The content for these lectures is drawn from several sources, like UMFULA -  UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION IN MODELS FOR UNDERSTANDING DEVELOPMENT APPLICATIONS - a project funded under  the UK Future Climate for Africa initiative. See

Video-lecture 1

Sharon Nicholson (2000), "The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to millenia",  Global and Planetary Change 26: 137-158.

Nicholson, S. E., C. Funk and A. H. Fink (2018). "Rainfall over the African continent from the 19th through the 21st century." Global and Planetary Change 165: 114-127.

Video-lecture 2

Spaliviero, Mathias & De Dapper, Morgan & Mannaerts, C.M. & Yachan, Antonio. (2011). Participatory Approach for Integrated Basin Planning with Focus on Disaster Risk Reduction: The Case of the Limpopo River. Water. 3. 737-763.

Video-lecture 3

Olsson, J., B. Arheimer, M. Borris, C. Donnelly, K. Foster, G. Nikulin, M. Persson, A.-M. Perttu, B. C. Uvo, M. Viklander and W. Yang (2016). "Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden." Climate 4(3).

Hazeleger, W., B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, E. Min, G. J. van Oldenborgh, A. C. Petersen, D. A. Stainforth, E. Vasileiadou and L. A. Smith (2015). "Tales of future weather" Nature Climate Change 5: 107.

Conway, D., E. A. van Garderen, D. Deryng, S. Dorling, T. Krueger, W. Landman, B. Lankford, K. Lebek, T. Osborn, C. Ringler, J. Thurlow, T. Zhu and C. Dalin (2015). "Climate and southern Africa's water–energy–food nexus." Nature Climate Change 5: 837.

Conway D., Mittal N., Archer E. R., Pardoe J., Todd M., Vincent K. and Washington R. (2017). Future climate projections for Tanzania. Available at:

Video-lecture 4

Shepherd, T. G., E. Boyd, R. A. Calel, S. C. Chapman, S. Dessai, I. M. Dima-West, H. J. Fowler, R. James, D. Maraun, O. Martius, C. A. Senior, A. H. Sobel, D. A. Stainforth, S. F. B. Tett, K. E. Trenberth, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, N. W. Watkins, R. L. Wilby and D. A. Zenghelis (2018). "Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change." Climatic Change 151(3): 555-571.

Brown, Casey. “Decision-scaling for Robust Planning and Policy under Climate Uncertainty.” World Resources Report, Washington DC. Available online at

Mahlalela, P.T., R.C. Blamey and C.J.C. Reason 2018 Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa, Climate Dynamics,

Muller, M. 2018 Cape Town’s drought: don’t blame climate change

Last modified: Tuesday, 7 May 2019, 2:04 PM